We will initially use load forecasts provided by our end-use load-serving customers.  Such customers are required, under ATC’s Distribution-Transmission Interconnection Agreements and Network Operating Agreements, to provide ATC with monthly peak demand forecasts for the next ten years. We may, in the future, develop load forecasts either concurrent with or independent of its load-serving customers. In addition, we may, in coordination with its load-serving customers, develop representative load duration curves based on actual and normalized load conditions.  The ATC methodology for developing, aggregating and maintaining load forecast information should be in accordance with NERC Standards MOD-010-0 and

MOD-011-0.

In utilizing or developing load forecasts, the following criteria will be used:

1. Summer peak demand forecasts will be calculated in such a way that there is an almost equal probability of exceeding or falling short of the forecast when average peak making weather does occur.
2. Winter peak demand forecasts will be calculated in such a way that there is an almost equal probability of exceeding or falling short of the forecast when average peak making weather does occur.
3. Summer shoulder peak demand forecasts will be developed reflecting moderate weather days (75 F-80 F).  Such forecasts will be based on a load level that, within a reasonable range, captures as many shoulder peak hours within a representative load duration curve of load connected to the ATC transmission system. These demand forecasts will be developed to evaluate historical high power transfer conditions. 
4. Fall/spring off-peak demand forecasts will be based on a load level that, within a reasonable range, captures as many off-peak hours within a representative load duration curve of load connected to the ATC transmission system. 
5. Summer 90/10 peak demand forecasts will be developed that reflect above-average summer weather and peak demand conditions. This peak demand forecast will be calculated in such a way that there is a 90 percent probability of falling short of and a 10 percent probability of exceeding the forecast due to weather conditions. Until we develop the capability for producing a specific 90/10 forecast, we will assume that it can be reasonably approximated through increasing the conforming loads by 5 percent and leaving the non-scalable loads unchanged. The ratio of the real to reactive power of the loads will remain unchanged.
6. Light load (50 percent of peak) demand forecasts will be developed that reflect light load levels, which are approximately 50 percent of the summer peak demand forecasts. Conforming loads will be scaled and non-scalable loads will remain unchanged.