2014

10-Year
Assessment

Economic planning

ATC utilizes three methods to determine which projects have the potential for economic benefits:

  1. Stakeholder Input and Analyses
  2. Reliability Project Screening
  3. Congestion Severity Index

These methods are described below.

Stakeholder Input and Analyses

In March 2008, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 890-A took effect. As part of this order, FERC requires a coordinated, open, and transparent transmission planning process on both a local and regional level. To comply with these requirements, ATC submitted a compliance filing on Order 890-A that provides a timeline of actions to ensure that the economic planning process is both coordinated and open.  ATC has also submitted a compliance filing on Order 1000 that incorporates public policy requirement needs into its economic planning analysis

Annually, ATC will use a process with consistent timelines that combines stakeholder input, historical data, future line flow forecasts, and updated information on the electric system to identify transmission upgrades for economic evaluation.

Each year:

  • During February, we hold an initial stakeholder meeting to review the market congestion summary and potential fixes and to discuss economic study scenarios, drivers, ranges, and assumptions.
  • By March 1, we work with stakeholders to request and prioritize new/other economic studies and recommend study assumptions.
  • By April 15 – we identify preliminary areas of economic study, study assumptions and models and solicit further comments from stakeholders, including soliciting stakeholders for public policy requirements that drive transmission needs.
  • By May 15 – we finalize areas of economic study, study assumptions and models to be used in analysis, including a determination as to why or why not public policy requirements were included in the assumptions.
  • By November 15 – we provide a summary of the results of the economic analyses to our stakeholders.

ATC conducts analyses of the projects identified for study over several months’ time and posts the key results, including the extent to which these savings offset project costs. When the expected benefits of a studied project are high enough to justify its costs, the process of developing it as a formal proposal is begun.

As a result of the 2014 ATC/stakeholder collaborative process, we are performing economic analyses on the following ATC facilities:

Economic Planning Study Areas
  • Janesville 138 kV Project
  • Point Beach 138 kV Project

Studies will be performed and results shared with stakeholders over the course of the year. In addition, customers and stakeholders who would like to request specific economic studies can do so if they are willing to pay for the studies and are willing to have the results posted publicly.

Reliability Project Screening

Economic analyses were performed on 11 projects from the 2013 10-Year Assessment project list to determine whether those projects were candidates for acceleration or deferral based on economic considerations. Please refer Table EP-1 for the list of projects screened. The list of 11 projects was based primarily on the availability of redispatch and capital costs of the projects; however, lower cost projects specifically identified by the ATC planning department were also included in the study. Generation interconnection and distribution interconnection projects were not eligible for inclusion in this list. Further, capacitor bank projects were not considered since the voltage benefits provided were not captured by the PROMOD software analysis. Finally, projects with in-service dates prior to 2016 were not considered since development of those projects was too far underway to make scheduling changes. As a result of this screening, two projects showed significant promise. Both the Shoto-Custer 138 kV line and the Spring Green 2nd transformer both had savings that helped offset costs, but could not cover them completely. They will continue to be studied further for acceleration.

A similar analysis will be performed in the 2015 10-Year Assessment based upon the 2014 Assessment project list.

Table EP-1

 System AdditionsPlanning Zone
1Presque Isle - Tilden 138 kV line loop into National and uprate National - Tilden 138 kV line2
2Victoria - Winona 69 kV line construction2
3Winona - Atlantic 69-kV line rebuild2
4Spring Green 2nd 138/69 kV Transformer3
5Cardinal-Blount 138-kV line3
6West Middleton- Pheasant Branch 69 kV double circuit3
7Bass Creek - Townline Road reconductor3
8Portage - Trienda 138 kV uprate3
9Shoto-Custer 138kV line4
10Arcadian-Waukesha 138-kV lines rebuild 5
11Arcadian 345/138 kV Transformer replacement5
Economically Screened Projects from 2013 TYA Project List

Congestion Severity Index

ATC developed a Congestion Severity Index for use as the screening indicator to track locations on the transmission system where constraints to the delivery of economic energy exist. The Congestion Severity Index combines the financial impact of constraints with the frequency of constraints. The financial impact during an hour is the calculated theoretical maximum number of dollars that could be paid into the market due to congestion on the constraint in question. The sum of the total financial impacts for each hour during which the constraint occurs forms the basis of the Congestion Severity Index. This information is used as a starting point in determining areas of the system where potential upgrades may be cost-effective. This data is combined with stakeholder input and ATC planning recommendations to identify a group of projects to study. A list of the most severe market constraints in the Day Ahead and Real Time markets for 2013 is given in Tables ZS-5 and ZS-6, respectively. Maps depicting the geographic locations of the most severe market constraints in the Day Ahead and Real Time markets for 2013 are shown in Figure ZS-27 and Figure ZS-28, respectively.

Table ZS-5

Severity IndexHoursConstraintPotential Solution
14.01713Minnesota to Wisconsin Exports Interface (MWEX)Monroe County - Council Creek 161 kV line (Planned 2015) nBadger - Coulee 345 kV line (Proposed 2018)
5.93427Albers - Kenosha 138 kVAlbers - Kenosha 138 kV rebuild (Planned 2014)
4.69158Columbia - Portage 138 kV (X-20)ATC is currently investigating solutions nBadger - Coulee 345 kV line (Proposed 2018) nCardinal - Bluffs 345 kV (Proposed 2020) nColumbia - Portage 138 kV rebuilds (Provisional 2025)
4.52239North Appleton 345/138 kV Transformer T3Bay Lake Project: North Appleton - Morgan 345 & 138 kV lines (Proposed 2019)
2.92251Paddock - Town Line Rd 138 kVPaddock - Town Line Rd 138 kV rebuild (Asset Renewal 2014)nTransmission status may have contributed to this constraintn
2.65104Forest Junction - Lake Park 138 kVTransmission status may have contributed to this constraint
2.58159Forest Junction - Kaukauna Central 138 kVTransmission status may have contributed to this constraint
1.94180Pleasant Prairie - Zion 345 kVATC is currently investigating solutions nPleasant Prairie - Zion Energy Center 345 kV line (In-service 2013)n
1.92250Arcadian - Zion 345 kVATC is currently investigating solutions nPleasant Prairie - Zion Energy Center 345 kV line (In-service 2013)n
1.84135Ellington - Hintz 138 kVBay Lake Project: North Appleton - Morgan 345 & 138 kV lines (Proposed 2019)
1.6944Arcadian - Waukesha 138 kV (9962)Arcadian - Waukesha 138 kV lines 9942 and 9962 rebuild (Proposed 2019)
1.56512Pulliam - Stiles 138 kV (64441)Bay Lake Project: North Appleton - Morgan 345 & 138 kV lines (Proposed 2019)
1.4491Bluemound 230/138 kV Transformer T2Transmission status may have contributed to this constraint
1.38317Falls - Morgan 138 kVBay Lake Project: Morgan - Stiles 138 kV double circuit (Proposed 2019)
1.07235Pleasant Prairie 345/24 kV Transformer T2Pleasant Prairie Bus Reconfiguration (In-service 2013)nTransmission status may have contributed to this constraint (Stability Limit)
66.908,536Total for All ATC Day Ahead Constraints - 2013
ATC Day Ahead Market Most Limiting Elements - 2013

Table ZS-6

Severity IndexHoursConstraintPotential Solution
5.3943.4Columbia - Portage 138 kV (X-20)ATC is currently investigating solutions nBadger - Coulee 345 kV line (Proposed 2018) nCardinal - Bluffs 345 kV (Proposed 2020) nColumbia - Portage 138 kV rebuilds (Provisional 2025)
3.704.7Forest Junction - Point Beach 345 kVTransmission status may have contributed to this constraint
3.67106.0Albers - Kenosha 138 kVAlbers - Kenosha 138 kV rebuild (Planned 2014)
3.2623.1Paddock - Town Line Rd 138 kVPaddock - Town Line Rd 138 kV rebuild (Asset Renewal 2014)nTransmission status may have contributed to this constraint
3.2042.0North Appleton 345/138 kV Transformer T3Bay Lake Project: North Appleton - Morgan 345 & 138 kV lines (Proposed 2019)
2.5633.0Ellington - Hintz 138 kVBay Lake Project: North Appleton - Morgan 345 & 138 kV lines (Proposed 2019)
2.5563.3Arcadian - Zion 345 kVATC is currently investigating solutionsnPleasant Prairie - Zion Energy Center 345 kV line (In-service 2013)
2.16102.9Tecumseh 138/69 kV Transformer T1Transmission status may have contributed to this constraint
1.9435.5Falls - Morgan 138 kVBay Lake Project: Morgan - Stiles 138 kV double circuit (Proposed 2019)
1.9149.0Pleasant Prairie - Zion 345 kVATC is currently investigating solutions nPleasant Prairie - Zion Energy Center 345 kV line (In-service 2013)n
1.8531.3Pulliam - Stiles 138 kV (64441)Bay Lake Project: North Appleton - Morgan 345 & 138 kV lines (Proposed 2019)
1.4034.2Paddock - Shirland Ave 69 kVPaddock - Shaw 69 kV rebuild (Planned 2014)nTransmission status may have contributed to this constraintn
1.3112.3Forest Junction - Kaukauna Central 138 kVTransmission status may have contributed to this constraint
1.072.5Flow South PTDFPower Flow Control in UP (Planned 2014)nBay Lake Project: Holmes - Old Mead Road 138 kV line (Planned 2016)nBay Lake Project: North Appleton - Morgan 345 & 138 kV lines (Proposed 2019)nATC is currently investigating solutions
1.0628.9Granville 345/138 kV Transformer T3Transmission status may have contributed to this constraint
53.311,115.6Total for All ATC Real Time Constraints - 2013
ATC Real Time Market Most Limiting Elements - 2013